首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
     检索      

未来气候变化情景下我国主要粮食作物产量变化模拟
引用本文:张建平,赵艳霞,王春乙,何勇.未来气候变化情景下我国主要粮食作物产量变化模拟[J].干旱地区农业研究,2007,25(5):208-213.
作者姓名:张建平  赵艳霞  王春乙  何勇
作者单位:1. 重庆市气象科学研究所,重庆,401147
2. 中国气象科学研究院,北京,100081
3. 国家气候中心,北京,100081
摘    要:采用气候模式BCC-T63与作物模式WOFOST相结合的研究方法,在多年试验数据和模型适宜性验证的基础上,模拟分析了未来100 a(2000~2100年)气候变化情景下我国主要粮食作物发育和产量变化趋势.主要的粮食作物选取东北区域的玉米、华北区域的冬小麦和南方区域的双季稻.东北区域为东经120°~135°,北纬40°~50°,主要以黑龙江、吉林和辽宁三省区为研究对象;华北区域为东经111°~123°,北纬35°~41°,主要包括京、晋、冀和鲁等地;南方区域为东经109°~120°,北纬25°~30°,主要包括湖南、湖北以及江西等地.结果表明:东北地区玉米生育期会缩短,其中,中熟玉米平均缩短3.8 d,晚熟玉米平均缩短1.4 d,产量也会相应地下降,中热玉米平均减产3.3%,晚熟玉米平均减产2.7%;华北地区冬小麦的生育期平均缩短8.4 d;产量平均减产10.1%;南方早稻生育期平均缩短4.9 d,晚稻生育期平均缩短4.4 d,早稻的产量变化范围为1.9%~-9.5%,平均减产3.6%,晚稻的产量变化范围为2.2%~-7.3%,平均减产2.8%.

关 键 词:气候变化  作物模型  产量  模拟
文章编号:1000-7601(2007)05-0208-06
修稿时间:2006-12-10

Simulation of the yields change of China'main crops under climate change scenario
ZHANG Jian-ping,ZHAO Yan-xi,WANG Chun-yi,HE Yong.Simulation of the yields change of China''''main crops under climate change scenario[J].Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas,2007,25(5):208-213.
Authors:ZHANG Jian-ping  ZHAO Yan-xi  WANG Chun-yi  HE Yong
Institution:1. Chongqing Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Chongqing 401147, China ; 2. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China ; 3. National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China
Abstract:Using the method of climate model BCC-T63 jointly with crop model WOFOST,and based on the experiment data of many years and suitability test,simulation and analysis were carried out about the change of the growth and yield of the main crops in China under climate change.The main crops included maize in Northeast China,winter wheat in North China,and double-season rice in South China.The Northeast region lies from 120 to 135 degrees east longitude from 40 to 50 degrees north latitude,mainly including three provinces: Helongjiang,Jilin and Liaoning;The North China is situated from 111 to 123 degrees east longitude and from 35 to 41 degrees north latitude,mainly including Jing,Jin,Ji and Lu area;The South China is located from 109 to 120 degrees east longitude and from 25 to 30 degrees north latitude,mainly including the provinces of Hunan,Hubei and Jiangxi.The results showed: the life time of maize in Northeast China will be shortened,the lifetime of medium maize will be shortened by 3.8 days,that of the late maize will be shortened by 1.4 days,the yields of maize also will be decreased to a different extent,medium maize will be reduced by 3.3 percent,late maize reduced by 2.7 percent;The life time of winter wheat in North China will be shortened by 8.4 days,and the yields of winter wheat also will be decreased by 10.1% to a different extent;The lifetime of early rice in South China will be shortened by 4.9 days,that of late rice will be shortened 4.4 days,the change range of early rice from 1.9 to 9.5 percent,meanly reduced by 3.6 percent,and the change range of late rice from 2.2 to-7.3 percent,meanly reduced by 2.8 percent.
Keywords:climate change  crop model  yield  simulation
本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录!
点击此处可从《干旱地区农业研究》浏览原始摘要信息
点击此处可从《干旱地区农业研究》下载免费的PDF全文
设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号