东北地区玉米气候适宜评价指标的确定与验证

为科学、定量地评价气象条件对玉米生长发育及产量形成的影响,以东北地区为例,利用模糊数学原理,在考虑了玉米生物学特性的基础上,结合农业气象业务服务指标,构建了东北区温度、水分、日照适宜度模型,采用几何平均法计算了玉米气候适宜度。考虑到不同发育期气候条件对玉米产量形成影响程度的客观差异,运用相关系数法设定玉米生育期内各旬对产量的权重,采用加权平均法构建了玉米播种至任意时段的气候适宜指数。利用各时段历史气候适宜指数最大值、平均值、最小值,确定了不同等级的气候适宜评价指标。基于该指标将1993—2011年玉米全生育期气候适宜指数划分为气候适宜、较适宜、较不适宜和不适宜4个等级,并将该指标进行验证。检验结果表明:东北地区玉米气候适宜等级与生育期内气象条件的优劣具有很好的一致性,播种~拔节、播种~乳熟、播种~成熟3个阶段的气候适宜等级与产量增减幅度的相关性十分显著(P≤0.05),且越接近成熟期,相关性越明显;气候适宜等级能够较准确地反映出玉米生育期内气象条件的优劣变化及逐年、典型灾害年产量的实际情况。

Identification and validation of climatic suitability indicator of maize in Northeast China

In order to assess the effects of meteorological conditions on growth and yield of maize scientifically and quantifiably ,Northeast China was taken as an example using fuzzy mathematics to establish suitability functions for tem -perature ,moisture and sunshine ,combined with the biological characteristics of maize and agricultural meteorological business services index .As a result ,the climatic suitability of maize was calculated by geometric mean formula .Consid-ering the objective differences in influence intensities on growth of maize by weather conditions ,the correlation analysis was used to calculate the weight for each ten - day to every growth stage .Then the climate suitable index of maize from sowing to any stages of development in growth period was built by weighted average method .Through the uses of historical maximum ,minimum and average climate suitable index ,different grades climate suitable evaluation indexes were set up , by which the Climatic suitability indicators of every growth period were divided into four grades and the correlation be -tween climatic suitability grades and yield of maize was analyzed from 1993 to 2011 .The results showed good relations between climatic suitability grades and meteorological conditions during the growing season of maize in Northeast China . There was a significant correlation (P ≤ 0 .05) existing between climatic suitability grades of three developmental stages (seeding to jointing ,seeding to milky maturity ,and seeding to maturity) and the margin of increase or decrease in yield of maize .In addition ,the more related between climatic suitability grades and yield ,the closer to maturity it is .The cli-matic suitability grades can evaluate the change of climate condition during every developmental stage and reflect accu -rately the actual fluctuations of yield year by year and the typical years of poor harvest for maize .This method is advanta-geous for popularization and application .