基于WOFOST模型的辽宁省春玉米干旱灾损风险评估

利用锦州农业气象试验站的作物生长发育和土壤实测数据对WOFOST模型水分胁迫模块进行了调参，适用性验证表明，WOFOST模型适用于辽宁省春玉米生长发育和产量的模拟，辽宁省春玉米受干旱的影响可以利用WOFOST模型较敏感地反映出来。利用调参后的WOFOST模型模拟了全生育期及出苗~拔节、拔节~抽雄、抽雄~乳熟和乳熟~成熟各阶段发生轻、中、重旱情景对辽宁省春玉米产量的影响，并根据模拟结果确定了不同干旱风险等级下辽宁省东、中、西部玉米生产的灾损范围。结果表明：不同生育期发生干旱对产量的影响不同，总体上，抽雄~乳熟期发生干旱的影响最大，其次是拔节~抽雄期，而出苗~拔节期和乳熟~成熟期发生干旱对产量的影响较小，全省春玉米在抽雄~乳熟期发生重旱的减产风险达30%~70%；在相同干旱水平下，不同区域受影响程度也不同，在全生育期及各生育阶段发生轻、中、重旱情景下，干旱导致的减产率总体上表现为由东部向西部地区逐渐加重的趋势，在全生育期重旱情景下，辽宁省东部的春玉米减产率为40%~75%，中部为60%~90%，西部达65%~95%。

Risk assessment of drought damage of spring maize in Liaoning Province based on WOFOST model

Parameters of the water stress module of WOFOST model were adjusted based on the observed data of crop growth and soil moisture and properties from Jinzhou agrometeorological experimental station. The applicability test proved that WOFOST model was suitable for simulating the spring corn growth and yield in Liaoning Province, and the influences of drought on spring maize can be sensitively simulated by WOFOST model. Influences of mild drought, moderate drought and severe drought scenarios of the whole growth period and different growth stages on yield of spring maize in Liaoning Province were simulated. According to the simulation results, the yield loss under different drought risk levels across Liaoning Province was estimated. The results showed that the same drought level in different growth stages has different effects on yield. Generally, drought in tasseling\|milk stage had the greatest impact, followed by jointing\|tasseling stage, while drought during seedling\|jointing stage and milk\|maturing stage had less impact on yield. Yield loss across the whole province under severe drought scenario in tasseling\|milk stage was 30%~70%. Under the same drought level, different regions were affected differently. Under all the three drought scenarios, either in the whole growth period or the different growth stages, the yield reduction rate caused by drought generally showed a trend of aggravating from the east to the west. Under the situation of severe drought in the whole growth period, the yield reduction rate in the east of Liaoning Province was 40%~75%, in the middle area was 60%~90%, and in the west area is 65%~95%.