小麦矮腥黑穗病在中国定殖风险分析及区划研究

 本研究根据小麦矮腥黑穗病菌Tilletia controversa Kühn (TCK)萌发侵染的条件,结合气象数据,利用地理信息系统分析了TCK在中国冬麦区的定殖可能性。根据18年内出现适合TCK发生的年数,将中国冬麦区划分为4类,即高、中、低风险区和基本不发生区。18年内可能发生9年以上的地区为高风险区,可能发生4~8年的地区为中风险区,可能发生1~3年的地区为低风险区。计算出各风险区所占冬麦区的面积,其中,高中风险区约占全国冬麦区总面积的19.3%。

ESTABLISHMENT RISK ANALYSIS AND DIVISIONS OF TCK IN CHINA

Based on conditions required by the infection of Tilletia controversa Kühn (TCK), the possibility for establishment of TCK in winter wheat regions in China was assessed by simulation models and geographical information system (GIS). The winter wheat regions are divided into four areas, high, medium, low and basically no risk areas. In the high risk area, TCK occurs over nine times every eighteen years; the medium risk area, four to eight times every eighteen years; and the low risk area one to three times every eighteen years. The acreage of areas with high and medium risk is 19.3% of the whole winter wheat regions of the country.