陕北地区水资源安全及需求预测分析

在社会经济系统中,水资源是基本生活和生产资料,正日益成为地区社会经济进一步发展的限制因子。陕北地区是我国黄土高原的主体部分,水资源短缺是其面临的主要问题。本文通过计算陕北地区水贫困指数(WPI)、水资源压力指数(WSI),对该区的水资源安全状况作出初步分析;预测了陕北地区在2010、2020年的生活、生产和生态环境需水量,结合2010、2020年陕北地区水资源可利用量,得到预测年内地区水资源承载力供需平衡指数(IWSD),其值分别为-0.13、-0.16,说明陕北地区在现状水资源开发利用条件下,2010、2020年水资源对应的社会经济系统是不可承载的,应提高水资源开发利用程度和效率,增加可利用水资源量,保证水资源足以支撑地区社会经济系统。

Analysis on Water Security and Prediction of Water Demand in Northern Shaanxi Province

Water is a basic living and production material in the socio-economic system,and also is the limiting factor in socio-economic development further.The Loess plateau of the northern part of Shaanxi province is facing the water shortage problem.In this paper,a preliminary analysis of water security situation in Northern Shaanxi has been maked by calculating of Water Poverty Index(WPI) and Water Stress Index(WSI),then the living,production and eco-environmental water demands in 2010 and 2020 were predicted.Water resource available in Northern Shaanxi was used to calculate the Index of Water Supply and Demand(IWSD).The IWSD is-0.13,-0.16 in 2010,2020.Which indicated the status of the development and utilization of water resource in Northern Shaanxi could not carry the socio-economicsystem. In conclusion,in order to ensure water resource sufficient to support the socio-economic systems in the northern part of Shaanxi province,the efficiency of development and utilization of water resource of should be enbanced to increase the volume of available water resource.