新疆于田绿洲土地利用变化的人文驱动力分析

根据干旱区土地利用和相关的社会经济状况及其变化特征的典型相关分析,提出了表征县级土地利用动态变化及其人类驱动因素的指标,分析了两者的相关性及探讨人口变化驱动因素对土地利用特别是耕地变化的驱动机制,为协调干旱区土地资源和人类活动的关系提供依据,也为干旱区土地利用研究的深入积累方法和经验。

Study on Human Driving Mechanisms of the Oasis Land Use Changes in Arid Region

According to the Canonical correlation analysis between the LUCC of the arid region and relative social economy and its changed characters,the indexes that express dynamic changes of land use with unit ofcountryand their human driving mechanisms were brought forward,and the correlationsbetween them were analyzed.The driving mechanismsof land use changes affected by population changes were discussed.The land use structure is the result of long history of human production practice.It is affectedby the factors of population and social economy.But this kind of effect is still based on the naturalgeographic environment of a region.Planningthe land use structure and keeping appropriatecultivated lands in line with difference between natural conditions are the main methods to solve the traditions between the human and the lands especially in arid regions with frail ecological environment and uneven spatialwater resources.The technologies of multiplex statistical analysis are used in the studies of LUCC more and more in resent years.The Canonical correlation analysis is considered as the most effective method in the quantitative analysis of LUCC.The result of Canonical correlation analysis,whichis combined with model analysis,showsthat the total population,the crop productivity and its production value are the main driving force for controlling the changes of cultivated land areasin arid region.The changes of agriculturallands are in the primary position among the LUCC in arid region.To control the changes of agriculturalland areas is the key to solve the effects of LUCC on the environment.The main controlling methods are to increase the crop productivity and the production value of every crop unit,to control the population growth and to enhance the population quality in this region.So,focusing upon those works is the foundation for regional sustainable development in arid region.This research presents the evidence for harmonizing the relations between the land resource and the human activity and provides some methods and experience for further study of LUCC in arid region.