塔里木河下游土地沙漠化对地下水位动态的响应——建立沙漠化程度预测数学模型

历史以来塔里木河流域气候变化与人类活动是导致塔里木河两岸地下水位变化并由此造成生态环境演化的主导因素。尤其是不合理的水资源开发利用加快了地表水资源的时空再分配 ,从而引起了地下水空间补给变化。通过对塔里木河下游地下水埋深与沙漠化程度资料的对比分析 ,表明地下水位下降是引起塔里木河下游土地沙漠化的众多因素中最直接的因素。而地下水位的变化又取决于地表水资源的时空分布。文中围绕此关系建立了响应地下水位动态的土地沙漠化预测数学模型。

Study on Soil Desertification in Response to Groundwater Level and Its Prediction Model in the Lower Reaches of Tarim River

Climatic changes and human activities have been, since history, the dominant factors bringing on the change of groundwater level and the evolvement of ecological environment in Tarim River watershed. Irrational exploitation of water resources, in particular, accelerated thespatio-temporalreallocation of the surface water resources and changed the groundwater space. Thecomparison of soil desertification degree with groundwater depth indicates that the descending of groundwater level is the immediate factor leading to the soil desertification in Tarim Riverlower reaches. The variability of groundwater level dependson the spatio-temporal distribution of the surface water resources. Prediction model of desertification in respouse to groundwater level is established according to the above relation in this paper.