蒙古高原农牧业系统格局变化与影响因素分析

近几十年来,在全球变暖和经济全球化的趋势下,蒙古高原农牧业系统格局发生了巨大变化。本文阐述了蒙古国农牧业生产现状和过去半个多世纪农牧业格局变化,在统计资料和实地调查的基础上利用统计分析方法进行时空对比分析。研究结果表明:蒙古耕地比例小,主要作物单产很低,耕地面积自1950年代起逐渐增加,至1980年代中期达到最大,然后持续减少,谷物总产量在1980年代中期前波动增加,之后则持续减少,人均拥有谷物量与总产量走势基本一致;畜牧业是蒙古支柱产业,但畜牧业粗放经营,畜产品生产力远低于发达国家,各种畜种数目自20世纪初都有所增加,特别是山羊自1990年代起增长迅猛,而人口稳定增长却导致人均占有家畜量波动下滑。分析认为蒙古农牧业系统格局变化的影响因素主要包括气候因素、农业技术投入和牧业管理、经济体制和社会制度,尤其气候灾害和开放市场经济对蒙古农牧业产生了深刻的影响。

Structural Change of Agriculture-Livestock System and Affecting Factors in Mongolian Plateau

In recent years,the structure of agriculture-livestock system in Mongolian plateau has changed significantly.In order to explore the change and its reasons,researchers from China,Mongolia and Japan have began to work together to deal with the common problems.The present situation about agriculture and livestock,and the structural change of agriculture-livestock system in different time scales in Mongolia were illustrated.Statistical and temporal-geographical comparison analysis was done by using statistical data and information from field investigation.The conclusions demonstrated that the plantation area ratio was low in Mongolia;productivity of main crops was extremely low;Plantation area began expanding from 1950s and reached a higher level in 1980s,and then decreased consistently;grain ield increased before the middle of 1980s,then decreased steadily;The change of grain per capita was associated with the change of total yield;livestock was Mongolia's fundamental industry,but because of its extensive management model animal products' production was far from reaching a high level.Livestock's number,especially sheep,was increasing since the beginning of the 20th century.However,rapid population increase leaded to fluctuant decrease of livestock per capita.It was considered that climate change,technical input in agriculture,livestock management and economic and social policies were the main factors influencing Mongolian agriculture and livestock development.Among these factors,climate disasters and open market economy affected Mongolian agriculture and livestock mostly.The problems that Mongolia and Inner Mongolia faced was comparied.