银川市农业结构调整的自然-社会经济驱动力分析

通过对银川市多年土地资源、土壤质量、水资源、气候等自然资源的变异和社会经济数据的分析认为,银川市人均耕地面积的减少、土地质量的退化、水资源短缺与水质污染、气候环境的变化等是农村产业结构调整的自然驱动力;社会经济各项指标对种植业的影响最大,消费结构对林果业发展影响较大,牧业发展与种植业产值和肉制品、蔬菜、粮食消费金额关联较高,渔业发展相对稳定,受社会经济指标影响较小。基于此银川市农业产业结构调整要因地制宜,综合考虑农业的多重综合功能,合理安排各个产业及产业内部在时、空、量、序上的布局等。

Driving force analysis on natural and soci-economical factors to agriculture structure adjustment in YinChuan City

Variations of natural resources and socioeconomic indexes were concerned based on analysis of the data of more than twenties years about Yinchuan city,including land resource,soil quality,water resources and water quality,climate resources,indexes of economy and population,indexes of consumption and trade.The results showed that the natural driving forces of structure adjustment of agriculture in Yinchuan involved in reduction of cultivation land per capita,degeneration of land quality,shortage and pollution of water,climate changes.Power from the society and economy were the most strong driving forces to planting industry;consumption pattern had deep influence on forestry and fruit industry;higher relationship was found between stock industry and production value of planting industry,consumption sum of meat,vegetable,food;fishery industry development was stable relatively,so it was less influenced by social and economical power.Finally,some advices proposed in view of the agriculture structure adjustment in Yinchuan,such as adjusting measures should be according to local conditions;considering the multiple function of agriculture synthetically;arranging the layouts of each industry and industry interior properly in time series and space,and also in quantuty and sequence,etc.