建国以来黑龙江省粮食产量变化小波分析

采用Morlet小波变换分析方法,对建国以来黑龙江省粮食产量变化进行了多时间尺度分析,揭示了黑龙江省粮食产量变化的多时间尺度的复杂结构,分析了不同时间尺度下粮食产量变化的周期,并根据主要周期对未来粮食产量进行了预测。结果表明:建国以来黑龙江省粮食产量变化具有明显的6年、9年、13年、18年和24年的特征时间尺度和相应的周期性变化特征,并且特征时间尺度有逐步增加的趋势,即黑龙江省的粮食产量变化渐趋稳定;此外,根据小波方差发现黑龙江省粮食产量变化具有显著的9年、13年、18年和24年的主要周期,并以24年的周期尤为显著;最后综合5个时间尺度上小波系数的演变趋势发现,无论是大尺度还是小尺度上,在未来几年内,黑龙江省将走出粮食增产时期,而进入粮食减产时期。

Multiple Time Scales Analysis on Grain Output in Heilongjiang Province Since the Foundation of P. R.C.

The Morlet wavelet transformation is used to analyze the grain output in Heilongjiang Province since the foundation of P.R.C.at multiple time scales.The results show: The grain output has 6-years,9-years,13-years,18-years and 24-years of characteristic time scale which tend to become longer.It is indicated that the changes of the grain output of Heilongjiang Province become steady step by step.The grain output has the 9-years,13-years,18-years and 24-years main periods from the wavelet variances analysis,and the 24-years period is especially outstanding;Whether at the bigger scale or at the smaller scale,the grain output in Heilongjiang Province seems to be decreasing in the recent years from the analysis of the figures of the wavelet coefficients.