山西气候变化特征与旱涝灾害趋势判断

根据山西18个气象站自建站以来到2010年的气温和降水资料,应用趋势分析法、Mann-Kendall突变检验、马尔可夫模型等分析了山西近60a来的气候变化及旱涝趋势。结果表明:1)山西近60a来气候总体上具有暖干化特征,年平均气温呈波动上升趋势,其增长率为0.29℃/10a。20世纪90年代以来气温上升迅速,在1992年气温发生突变,1992年以前为冷期,以后为暖期。2)降水量总体呈减少趋势,为-12.77mm/10a。降水变化与气温变化呈负相关。3)马尔可夫模型预测显示在气温突变后2012～2016年降水处于"正常"状态的概率较大。

Climate change and drought and flood disasters trend in Shanxi

Based on the temperature and rainfall data of 18 meteorological stations in Shanxi during 1951-2010,the climate change and drought and flood disasters trend in Shanxi were studied by means of trend analysis,Mann-Kendall abrupt change test,Markov.and so on.The results indicate:(1) the climate trends of Shanxi was becoming dry and warm.The mean annual temperature had a wave increasing tendency;the change rate was 0.29℃ per 10 year.The temperature rose quickly since the 20C 90's,and jump occurred in 1992.Before 1992 it was a cold period,after it was a warm period.(2) The precipitation in these years was in a descending tendency by-12.77mm per 10 years.Changes in precipitation and temperature were in the negative correlation.(3) After the abrupt temperature change,there will be a certain probability of precipitation in normal state from 2012~2016.