气候变化对山西省冬小麦种植的影响

以1961-2005年地面气象观测资料和冬小麦生长发育资料为基础,分析了山西省气候要素及关键界限温度等变化趋势和特征。结果表明:山西省年平均气温增温明显,最冷月平均气温稳定上升,其倾向率为0.42℃/10 a;冬、春两季增温明显,其中冬季气温上升尤为显著;年平均气温和极端最低气温等值线北移较明显;降水量总的趋势在减少,秋、夏两季节降水量下降趋势以及阶段性都较明显,冬、春季总降水趋势不太明显,但阶段性起伏比较大;年平均日照时数也呈下降趋势。≥0℃积温、降水量和日照时数较1960年代在区域分布上东南部地区则较正常,其余地区呈增加、减少趋势。经M-K检验可知,自上世纪70年代末、90年代初开始温度升高、降水减少趋势开始明显,并在1998年通过U0.05显著性检验,从1990年代开始的气候暖干旱化趋势明显。气候变化使冬小麦播种和越冬期推迟,从返青开始各发育期均有提前,冬小麦种植北界较1960年代北移约15km左右。

Influence of climatic change on winter wheat cropping system in Shanxi

Based on the ground meteorological observation data and information of winter wheat growth and development in 1961-2005,the change tendencies and characteristics of climatic element and essential boundary temperature in Shanxi Province were analyzed.The results showed that annual mean temperature warming was obvious,the mean temperature in the coldest month increased steadly,its tendency rate was for 0.42℃/10a;Winter and spring warming were obvious,and the winter temperature rise was especially remarkable.The equivalent line of the annual mean temperature and the lowest temperature moving to the north were extremely obvious;precipitation tendency was reduce,the fall and the summer precipitation declining trend as well as gradualness were obvious,the winter and the spring precipitation changes were not obvious,but the gradual fluctuation was quite big;the annual mean sunshine hours also assumed the declining trend.≥0℃ accumulated temperature and precipitation and sunshine hours were normal in the regional distribution in southeast area than 1960s,Other areas assumed increase and reduced tendency.By the M-K test,from the late 1970s and the early 1990s temperature increase and the precipitation decrease tendency were obvious.The climate change caused the postpone of the winter wheat sowing time,development period was ahead,north-border of winter wheat planting moved to north about 15km than in the 1960s.