河南省旱灾对称性特征及趋势判断

根据河南省1955-2010年干旱受灾面积历史资料,统计出其发生特大干旱年份起始年的数列。首先,两次运用三元、四元、五元可公度法对河南省旱灾的发生趋势进行预测:第一次预测出2011年会发生特大干旱,结果在2011年确实有干旱存在;第二次把2011年加入原数列,预测出下一次可能发生旱灾的时间。其次,运用蝴蝶结构图法对旱灾的时间对称性进行分析。结果表明:河南省的特大干旱符合可公度特征并存在时间对称性规律,时间间隔以2a、12a、19a最为显著,且2013,2016年左右河南省可能发生特大干旱,概率分别为58.3%、54.4%。

Symmetry characteristics and trend judgment of drought in Henan

Based on historical data of disaster occurring areas in Henan from 1955-2010,we obtained the initial years of severe drought and make them into sequence.Firstly,we used commensurability of ternary,quaternion and quintuple twice to predict the trend of drought in Henan.For the first time,we predicted that the severe drought would be occurred in 2011,results was indeed;for the second time,2011 was joined the original sequence to predict the next year may occur rence of the drought.Secondly,we used map of butterfly structure to analyze the time symmetry of the drought.Result showed that severe drought in Henan complied with commensurability and time symmetry,time interval is 2a,12a and 19a,and there exist possibilities of great disasters in 2013 and around 2016,probability is respectively 58.3% and 54.4%.