| 灰色灾变理论在宁南山区干旱气候预测中的应用 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 王龙昌,贾志宽,王立祥.灰色灾变理论在宁南山区干旱气候预测中的应用[J].干旱区资源与环境,2003,17(1):60-64. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 王龙昌 贾志宽 王立祥 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 南京农业大学,南京,210095;西北农林科技大学,杨凌,712100
2. 西北农林科技大学,杨凌,712100 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家“九五”科技攻关项目“96 -0 0 4-0 4-0 7”专题研究内容。 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 在分析宁南山区干旱气候特征及其对农业生产影响的基础上 ,借助灰色灾变理论分别建立了春旱、夏旱、秋旱、春夏连旱、夏秋连旱、全年旱等六种干旱类型的 GM( 1 ,1 )预测模型 ,并对 2 0 0 0～ 2 0 2 0年的干旱气候做出预测。经对 2 0 0 0年和 2 0 0 1年预测结果验证 ,吻合性良好。此外 ,提出了宁南山区抗旱防旱的综合农业措施。研究结果可对广大旱区抗旱减灾 ,促进农业生产发展提供科学指导。
|
| 关 键 词： | 灰色系统 干旱 GM(1 1)模型 防旱抗旱 农业措施 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-7578(2003)01-060-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2002年3月20日 |
Application of Gray System Theory in the Drought Climate Forecast in Southern Ningxia |
| |
| WANG Long-chang , JIA Zhi-kuan WANG Li-xiang.Application of Gray System Theory in the Drought Climate Forecast in Southern Ningxia[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2003,17(1):60-64. |
| |
| Authors: | WANG Long-chang JIA Zhi-kuan WANG Li-xiang |
| |
| Institution: | WANG Long-chang + 1,2 JIA Zhi-kuan +2 WANG Li-xiang +2 |
| |
| Abstract: | Based on the analysis of features of drought climate and its effects on agro-production in soughern Ningxia,GM(1,1) forecast models have been performed,with the aid of gray system theory,for six types of drought climate,i.e.,drought in spring,summer,autumn,spring & summer,summer& autunm,and whole year respectively,which are used to predict the drought occurrences during 2000 to 2020.The forecast results are proved to be well coincidental with the actual situations in 2000 and 2001.Furthermore,the paper brings forward the comprehensive anti-drought farming measures for this region.The study outcomes may provide scientific guidance to drought disaster fighting and to agro-production development in dryland areas. |
| |
| Keywords: | gray system drought GM(1 1) model anti-drought farming measure |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
