近200年来关中地区洪涝灾害研究

本文通过对历史文献资料的统计与分析,以关中地区1801-2005年的洪涝灾害等资料为依据,基于MATLAB分析了这一时期该地区洪涝灾害的时间变化特征、空间变化趋势,并应用了在最小二乘法意义下7次多项式的拟合预测了该地区未来五年(2006-2010年)洪涝灾害发展趋势。结果表明,该地区近200年以来,共发生洪涝灾害83次,平均每2.47年一遇,其中1850-1930年洪涝灾害发生频率明显增加,三十年代遭遇最为频繁,从这以后又逐渐减少;二十世纪三十年代洪涝灾害发生频率有明显增加的趋势,尤其在六十年代发生频率达到最高。关中地区的五个省辖区中,从整个这一时期来看渭南地区遭受洪涝灾害最为频繁,铜川受灾较轻,其他三个地区居于中间;洪涝灾害的阶段性、地区分布的不均匀性,与该地区的自然条件、所处的气候背景以及人类活动有关。预测了在未来的5年(2006-2010年)内,将发生0.9653次洪涝灾害。

The Research on the Flooding Disaster in Guanzhong in Recent 200 Years

Through the collection and analysis to the historical materials of the flooding disasterinGuanzhong areain1801-2005,and with7 multinomials in the least squares method,the flooding disaster development tendency in this areain future five years(2006-2010) was forecasted,the time and spatial characteristicsof the flooding disaster in Guanzhong were studiedbyMATLAB.The results showed that flooding disaster of the recent200 yearsaltogether accured 83 times,and averagely occurredone time per 2.47 years.The frequency of flooding disaster increased obviously during 1850-1930,in the 30's of 20th century the frequency of flooding disaster increased obviously,especially in the 1960's.In the five districtsofGuanzhong area,Weinan City suffered the flooding disastermost frequently,Tongchuan did lightly. It was forecasted that therewill have 0.9653 times of flooding disaster in the future 5 years(2006-2010).