基于GIS和Markov模型的土地利用时空变化研究

研究模拟土地利用的时空动态变化,可提高土地集约化程度,对实施土地持续利用具有一定的借鉴意义。选取黄土高原罗屿沟流域2002年、2006年和2010年三期遥感数据,在RS/GIS技术支持下,结合软件ERDAS8.6进行图像预处理,通过监督分类获取罗屿沟土地利用现状图。在分析土地利用现状的基础上,采用Arcview3.2空间分析模块求得土地利用转移矩阵,应用Markov模型对罗屿沟流域未来土地时空变化过程进行模拟分析和定量预测。结果表明:近10年来,罗屿沟流域土地利用变化速度较快,总的变化率达到2.016%,变化总面积2847.29hm2。其中林地和坡耕地都有不同幅度的增加,林地总面积增加了7.24%,年平均增长高达0.8%,而坡耕地面积增加了4.78%,年平均增长0.53%,河床地、草地和未利用地面积逐年减少,其中河床地和未利用地分别减少了46.23%和38.22%;未来土地利用类型仍然是以林地和坡耕地为主,二者总面积达到89.48%时会处于稳定状态。

Spatal-temporal changes of land use based on GIS and Markov Model

The remote sensing data of Luoyugou in 2002,2006 and 2010,were selected to gain the status quo of the land use by using the software ERDAS8.6.Transfer matrix on land use change was achieved on the basis of analyzing the land use status.Markov Random Field model was applied to simulate,analyze,and quantitatively forecast the land use spatial-temporal change of the Luoyugou in the next few decades.The results indicate that in the last ten years,the land use changed rapidly,and the overall change rate was 2.016% and total area was 2847.29hm2.Woodland was incleased 7.24% with an average annual growth rate of 0.8%,and farmland increased by 4.78% with an average annual growth 0.53%.The area of the riverbed,virginland and grassland became smaller,and the riverbed and the virginland have reduced 46.23% and 38.22%.In the future,the types of the land was still in the woodland and farmland,and it will be in a stable condition when the total area increase to 89.48%.