中国天山山区风速变化特征

利用天山山区27个气象站1960～2009年日平均风速、日平均气温、日最高和日最低气温等资料,运用一元回归分析法、IDW空间插值法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法和Matlab7.0软件,对天山山区风速的时空变化,突变年份和周期变化进行分析。结果表明:天山山区风速年际变化倾向率为-0.013m.s-1a-1,表明该区的风速呈明显减小趋势,比全国风速的减小更显著;四季的风速减小变化趋势也都比较显著;年风速自60年代逐渐减少,2000年以来减小幅度略有下降。风速突变检验显著,年及夏、秋季检验一致,在1980年发生突变;年风速距平序列在11年左右的振荡最为明显,其次是3年,由于时间序列较短,风速变化还可能存在更长的周期变化。

Changes of wind speed in Tianshan Mountains

Based on the daily data of 24 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2009 and combined with the methods of linear analysis,IDW,Mann-Kendall and Matlab7.0 software,the temporal and spatial variation of wind speed,abrupt year and periodic variation were analyzed in this study.The results indicated that the changing rate of annual wind speed was-0.013m·s-1·a-1 in Tianshan Mountains.That is to say the wind speed in Tianshan Mountains showed a remarkable decreasing tendency even more remarkable than that of China,and so was it in the four seasons;The annual wind speed decreased in 1960s and 1990s,but the extent of decreasing declined slightly from 2000.The exam of wind speed mutation was remarkable,and it occurred in 1980 and 1977;The annual wind speed anomaly sequence surged about 11 years remarkably and 3 years secondly,but a longer periodic change in wind speed may be existed because of the short time sequence;Negative correlation was found between the wind speed and temperature,which meant the wind speed was influenced by the temperature,especially for the mean minimum temperature.