近25a新疆LUCC对气候变化及人类活动的响应

根据新疆1981-2005年气象数据及两期土地利用/土地覆盖数据,运用改进的Holdridge植被生态分区模型、土地利用程度模型以及重心模型,分析了新疆LUCC对气候变化和人类活动的响应程度及变化趋势。研究表明:25年间新疆温度升高,降水增多,气候变化使得区域内植被群落格局发生变化,北部地区的未利用地向草地、灌木等生态类型转化;同时人类活动的加剧使得区域西北地区农用地和建设用地增加,生态环境也得到一定程度的改善。在气候变化和人类活动共同作用下,研究区土地利用程度重心由北偏西48度移动了3.87km,其中气候影响使土地利用程度重心由北偏东33度移动了1.25km,人为影响使其由北偏西66度移动了3.88km。

The LUCC responses to climatic change and human activity in Xinjiang in recent 25 years

Applied with Holdridge Life Modle,Land Use Drgree Model and Weight Centre Model,climate data of Xinjiang in recent 25 years and 2-period LUCC data were used to analyze the impact degree and direction of changes caused by climate changes and human activities to Xinjiang land covers and land use.The results showed that the rise in temperature and precipitation in most parts of Xinjiang caused the change of the vegetation community pattern.Meanwhile,the increasing of human acvitivities made the farmland and construction land increasing,and the eco-environment being improved in the northwest.Thereby the dual impacts by climatic changes and economic development resulted in a shift of Land Use Degree Weight Centre northwest ward by 3.87km.With regard to Land Use Degree Excursion Intensity,in north-south direction,40% was of that caused by climatic changes and 60% of that by anthropogenic impacts;while in east-west direction,24% was of that caused by climatic changes and 76% by anthropogenic impacts.