气候变化背景下埃及吹绵蚧在中国的适生区预测

基于埃及吹绵蚧分布点的经纬度数据,利用最大熵模型MaxEnt软件对埃及吹绵蚧在中国当前和未来(2050年和2070年)的适生区进行了预测,为林业和海关检疫部门对埃及吹绵蚧当前与未来的防控与检疫工作提供重要参考依据。在本研究中,梳理并筛选了埃及吹绵蚧在国内外的分布点,通过优化MaxEnt生态位模型,预测了在当前气候和未来气候下埃及吹绵蚧在中国的潜在分布,通过统计软件计算了各种气候条件下的适生区面积,并对影响埃及吹绵蚧分布的环境因子进行了筛选和统计。预测结果显示,基于当前气候,埃及吹绵蚧在我国的潜在分布区包括华南全部地区、华中和西南部分地区,主要集中在我国经度98°E～123°E、纬度20°N～30°N的地区。未来气候条件下的适生区范围呈现增大的趋势;刀切法(Jackknife)显示,对埃及吹绵蚧分布影响较大的环境要素主要为降水量,同时模型计算了埃及吹绵蚧定殖所需的四项环境要素的适宜范围。结合实际踏查数据和文献资料,MaxEnt模型预测结果可信度高,精确预测了影响埃及吹绵蚧分布的环境因子及其适生区范围,对埃及吹绵蚧的研究具有重要意义。

Prediction of potential geographical distribution of Icerya aegyptiaca in China under climate change

Based on the longitude and latitude data of the distribution points of Icerya aegyptiaca (Douglas), the suitable areas of I. aegyptiaca in China at present and in the future (2050 and 2070) were predicted by using MaxEnt software of maximum entropy model, which provided an important reference for forestry and customs quarantine departments to control and quarantine I. aegyptiaca at present and in the future. In this study, its distribution points over the world were collected and screened, and based on current climate and future climate information, the potential distribution area in China was predicted by using MaxEnt ecological niche model. The suitable area under various climates was calculated by using statistical software, and the environmental factors affecting the distribution of I. aegyptiaca were screened and statistically analyzed. The prediction results showed that, based on the current climate, the potential distribution areas of I. aegyptiaca in China included all areas of South China, parts of Central and Southwest China, mainly distributed in the areas with the longitude of 98° E to 123° E and the latitude from 20° N to 30° N. The range of suitable areas in the future climate was expected to increase. The Jackknife analysis showed that precipitation had a greater impact on the distribution of I. aegyptiaca . At the same time, the model calculated the appropriate range of four environmental factors required for colonization of I. aegyptiaca . Combined with the actual tracing data and literature data, the MaxEnt model showed a high degree of credibility, which accurately predicted the potential distribution and the environmental factors affecting the distribution of I. aegyptiaca. These data are of great significance for the study of I. aegyptiaca.