基于MaxEnt预测未来气候条件下钻叶紫菀在中国的潜在适生区

钻叶紫菀Symphyotrichum subulatum是一级恶性入侵植物，其传播速度快，繁殖能力强，严重影响本地草本植物多样性。本研究利用生态位模型MaxEnt和地理信息系统软件ArcGIS,根据收集的钻叶紫菀分布点和环境变量，预测目前气候条件和未来气候变化情景下钻叶紫菀在中国的潜在适生区，并推测环境变量对钻叶紫菀适生区的影响。结果表明，钻叶紫菀的潜在适生区主要位于亚热带湿润型气候大区的低海拔区域，其中高适生区的分布范围为21°～40°N,主要位于广东、福建、江西、江苏、湖南、湖北、四川东南地区和安徽东北地区等。影响钻叶紫菀潜在适生区分布的关键环境变量为最干旱月份降水量、最湿润月份降水量、10月平均温度、3月最高温度、8月最低温度和6月太阳辐射量。在未来气候变化情景SSP126、SSP245、SSP370和SSP585条件下，钻叶紫菀的低、中和高适生区面积占比将分别增加3.54%、4.80%、5.73%和3.29%。整体而言，未来气候变化有利于钻叶紫菀适生区的扩张。到21世纪中叶，钻叶紫菀的高适生区呈现向高海拔地区和中高纬度(具体为由南向北和西北方向)扩张的趋势。钻叶紫菀适生区分布范...

Potential suitable areas of Symphyotrichum subulatum based on MaxEnt under future climate scenarios

Symphyotrichum subulatum, as a malignant invasive plant, has a rapid spread and strong reproductive capacity, which seriously affected the diversity of local herbaceous plants. Based on the known distribution points and environmental variables collected, MaxEnt model and ArcGIS were used to predict the potential geographical distribution of S. subulatum in China and the changes of its suitable areas under future climate scenarios. The relationship between the distribution of S. subulatum and environmental variables was also investigated. The results showed that the suitable areas of S. subulatum were mainly distributed in subtropical humid climate regions. The highly suitable areas of S. subulatum distributed from 21°N to 40°N, including Guangdong, Fujian, Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Hunan, Hubei, southeast Sichuan and northeast Anhui. The key environmental variables that determine the distribution location of S. subulatum are precipitation of driest month, precipitation of wettest month, mean temperature of October, maximum temperature of March, minimum temperature of August and solar radiation of June. Under future climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585), the percentage of lowly, moderately, and highly suitable areas of S. subulatum will increase by 3.54%, 4.80%, 5.73% and 3.29%, respectively. By the middle of the 21st century, the suitable area of S. subulatum will expand to middle and high latitude (from south to north and northwest) and higher elevation area. Overall, future climate change benefit to the expansion of S. subulatum. It is necessary to strengthen inspection and quarantine in the trade of fruits, vegetables, seedlings and other agricultural products to prevent its further spread.