广州地区黄瓜霜霉病流行速率的预测模型

通过对广州地区黄瓜霜霉病 4点 4年的系统调查 ,初步明确了该地区黄瓜霜霉病的发生规律 ,对该病的流行速率及其相关因子进行逐步回归分析 ,组建了广州地区黄瓜霜霉病流行速率的预测模型 ,利用历史数据对该模型进行检验 ,其预测 5d和10d的病情指数的准确度分别为88.16%和68.11% ;用该模型预测2000年黄瓜霜霉病的病情指数 ,其预测5d和10d的病情指数的准确度分别为94.47%和69.43%。

The prediction model for the epidemiological rate of cucumber downy mildew disease in Guangzhou Region

According to the systematic investigations on cucumber downy mildew disease in four localities of Guang zhou from 1996 to 1999, the epidemic tendancy of the disease was preliminarily studied. By stepwise regression analysis, the factors that were related to the disease epidemical rate were selected. The regression model for predicting the epidemical rate of cucumber downy mildew was set up in Guangzhou Region. The model was examined using the disease indexes of 1996-1999 and the relative factors. The results showed that the accuracy of prediction for 5d and 10d was 88.16% and 68.11%, respectively. Based on the data of the relative factors, the model was used to predict the disease index in 2000 and the result showed that the accuracy of prediction for 5d and 10d was 94.47% and 69.43%, respectively.