渔业资源评估模型的研究现状与展望

制定合理的渔业管理计划, 实现渔业资源的可持续利用, 需对渔业资源进行科学的评估, 而渔业资源评估模型则是进行渔业资源评估的重要工具。随着计算机计算能力的提高及在多学科交叉的推动下, 近30多年来渔业资源评估模型得到了快速发展。随着渔业资源评估模型日益复杂、多样化, 模型的选择、使用难度也相应地增加了, 而模型的不恰当运用则可能导致渔业资源管理的失误。本文对渔业资源评估模型的基本结构、主要类型及参数估计所使用的统计模型等方面进行了全面回顾, 介绍了目前使用的主要渔业资源评估模型, 展示了渔业资源评估模型的发展历程及所取得的进展。同时, 文章对渔业资源评估模型中存在的问题进行了探讨, 并对其未来的发展进行了展望。

A review of fisheries stock assessment models

Development of rational management plans and correct management are essential to maintain the sustainability of fisheries resources. Fisheries management plans should be based on stock assessment and so stock assessment models are important tools for this. Over the last thirty years, fishery stock assessment models experienced a golden age and the number of models grew exponentially with improved computer technology and the integration of multidisciplinary research. At the same time, the complexity and diversity of the models makes choosing the correct one increasingly difficult for researchers and abuse of fisheries models may lead to stock collapse. In this paper, we reviewed fisheries stock assessment model structure, type, and estimators, i.e. fixed effect, random effect, and hierarchical Bayes to identify the typical models currently used in fisheries stock assessment and track their evolution and development. Meanwhile, the present paper discusses the problems with these models and presents prospects for their future development.