Models for forecasting sandfish catch in the coastal waters off Akita Prefecture and the evaluation of the effect of a 3-year fishery closure

SUMMARY: The sandfish Arctoscopus japonicus in the coastal waters off Akita Prefecture had been landed in amounts of more than 10 000 t continuously from 1963 to 1975. From 1976, however, it began to decrease sharply and fell to only 74 t in 1984. The fishery society of Akita Prefecture closed the fishing from 1 September 1992 to 30 September 1995. Since 1995, the total allowable catch (TAC) allocated in each year has increased. However, the mechanism behind the increment of catch has not been clearly demonstrated. The aim of this study is to elucidate the mechanism behind the increase of catch using catch forecasting models constructed with past water temperature and catch data. The results were as follows: (i) the effect of water temperature in the depth strata 200–300 m, September of year t –1, t –2 and t –3 of station 1 would be important for forecasting the catch in year t; (ii) coastal catch in year t –1 and t –2 would be important for forecasting the catch in year t; (iii) the effect of a fishery closure would be significantly related to the period of the closure and the environmental condition such as water temperature; and (iv) the TAC system would be important for the recovery of stock and to avoid the depletion of abundance.