基于ISM法的三沙湾资源开发累积生态效应研究

通过分析三沙湾中主要用海开发活动,从用海类型出发,在地形地貌、水动力、水质和沉积物质量、生物生态等方面的累积效应以及自然灾害诱发效应等指示因子中筛选出27个要素。利用解释结构模型(Interpretative Structural Modeling,ISM)分析了各要素之间的关系,建立了三沙湾资源开发累积生态效应的解释结构模型。从该模型的各个阶层,直观地反映出海湾资源开发各用海类型的累积生态效应发生过程,为海湾资源开发利用、规划和管理提供具有一定借鉴意义的理论基础和技术手段。

Cumulative ecological effects assessment on resource exploitation utilization in Sansha Bay based on Interpretative Structural Modeling method

Base on analyzing main marine exploitation projects in Sansha Bay in Fujian,27 essential factors including topography and geomorphology,water dynamical environment,water and sediment quality environment,ecological environment and the potential occurrence of disaster were selected from aspects of types of sea utilizing.Relations among these factors were analyzed by using Interpretative Structural Modeling method（ISM）,and the Interpretative Structural Modeling of cumulative ecological effects（CCE） on resources exploitation and utilization in Sansha Bay was set up.The model clearly showed CCE occurred in all process of the resource exploitation and utilization in bay in every level.It offered the theoretical basis and technical method for the government to plan and manage resources and environment of bay exploitation and utilization process.