气候变化情景下洞庭湖流域鸟类栖息地适宜性分布研究

鸟类对生态系统变化较为敏感，是衡量生态环境质量变化的一种重要指示生物。气候变化已成为栖息地丧失的重要原因之一，对鸟类的迁徙、繁殖有一定的影响。本文以洞庭湖流域为研究区域，结合收集到的382个鸟类出现点数据、遥感影像数据、气候变化数据等，基于Maxent模型方法，综合分析洞庭湖流域鸟类分布的驱动气候因素，并预测2050年气候不同情景下鸟类栖息地适宜性分布特征。结果显示：历史情景下洞庭湖流域鸟类的适宜性栖息地为多个集中分布区组成的带状区域，而在未来情景下栖息地由以前的带状分布逐渐演变为团状分布。2050年RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5排放情景下，适宜栖息地面积有所下降，占研究区域总面积的比例从历史情景的 9.43%分别降低到 9.26%、8.91%；而在RCP 8.5排放情景下面积增加，占研究区域总面积的比例增加至10.22%。但从栖息地适宜性分布而言，栖息地分布变得更加集中，未来情景下鸟类栖息地适宜性在三种排放情景下略高于历史情景，适宜性RCR8.5情景（33.12%）> RCR2.6情景（32.87%）> RCR4.5情景（32.74%）> 历史情景（31.33%）。本研究为气候变化条件下鸟类生物多样性保护提供重要的理论支撑。

Bird Habitat Suitability Distribution in Dongting Lake Basin Under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Birds are sensitive to the changes of ecosystem and are an important indicator to measure the changes of ecological environment. Climate change has become one of the important causes of habitat loss, and has a certain impact on the migration and reproduction of birds. Dongting Lake Basin was selected as the research area in this paper. To predict the distribution characteristics of bird habitat suitability under the three typical climate scenarios in 2050, Maxent model was applied by combining with 382 bird distribution data, remote sensing image data and climatic environment variables. The results showed that the suitable bird habitat in the Dongting Lake Basin presented zonal distribution composed of some concentrated areas in the historical scenario, while the habitat gradually changed from the former zonal distribution to the lumpy distribution in the future scenario. In 2050, the area of the suitable habitat would decrease, and the proportion of suitable habitat to the total study area decreased from 9.43% to 9.26% and 8.91% under RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5 emission scenarios, respectively. Meanwhile, the area would increase under the RCP 8.5 emission scenario, accounting for 10.22% of the total study area. Overall, compared with historical scenario, bird habitat suitability under the future three typical climate scenarios was slightly higher, with the suitability under RCR8.5 scenario (33.12%) > RCR2.6 scenario (32.87%) > RCR4.5 scenario (32.74%)> historical scenario (31.33%). The distribution of suitable habitat had a great correlation with the distribution of lakes. Our study would be beneficial for providing theoretical support for bird biodiversity conservation under climate change. Due to the considerable uncertainty of the magnitude and ecological consequences of climate change, the biodiversity conservation will be confronted with challenges. In spite of this, conservation planners can prioritize protect the potential habitats where birds will migrate and sustain under climate change.