| 养殖锯缘青蟹黄水病流行病学及其预报模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 冯振飞,王国良,倪海儿.养殖锯缘青蟹黄水病流行病学及其预报模型[J].水产科学,2009,28(12). |
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| 作者姓名： | 冯振飞 王国良 倪海儿 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 宁波大学,生命科学与生物工程学院,浙江,宁波,315211
2. 宁波大学医学院,浙江,宁波,315211 |
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| 基金项目： | 浙江省科技厅重大攻关项目，浙江省自然科学基金资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 依据浙江三门县青蟹养殖基地青蟹黄水病发生及流行的定点观测资料和环境因子检测数据,对青蟹发病与养殖环境因子的关系进行了分析研究,找出3个显著影响青蟹黄水病发生与流行的环境因子,即盐度变化、降雨量和弧菌数量.在此基础上,用多元统计方法对黄水病的预报模型进行了研究,建立了三门县青蟹养殖基地的青蟹黄水病预报模型,(Y)=-0.088+0.00026TV+7.179SC.检验表明,该模型具较高拟合度,可以用来测报黄水病发病率.
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| 关 键 词： | 锯缘青蟹 黄水病 流行病学 相关分析 预报模型 |
The Forcast Model of Yellow Water Disease in Mud Crab Scylla serrata |
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| FENG Zhen-fei,WANG Guo-liang,NI Hai-er.The Forcast Model of Yellow Water Disease in Mud Crab Scylla serrata[J].Fisheries Science,2009,28(12). |
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| Authors: | FENG Zhen-fei WANG Guo-liang NI Hai-er |
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| Institution: | FENG Zhen-fei1,WANG Guo-liang1,2,NI Hai-er1(1.Faculty of Life Science , Biotechnology,Ningbo University,Ningbo 315211,China,2.The Medical School,China) |
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| Abstract: | It is very important to forecast yellow water disease leading to mass loss of mud crab Scylla serrata in culture ponds.According to the data Collected by monitoring station during the occurrence and spread of the disease,the survey of the correlation between the yellow water disease morbidity in the mud crab and culture environment factors revealed that there were three environment factors affecting the epidemic of the disease:rainfall,quantity of Vibrio and salinity change.With these important environment ... |
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| Keywords: | Scylla serrata yellow water disease epidemiology correlation analysis forecasting model |
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