自然环境变动对北部湾渔业资源的影响

根据1949~1985年广西渔获量、捕捞努力量,以及降雨、风速和盐度等统计资料,分析了自然环境的变动对广西渔获量年际变化的影响,由于捕捞努力量的难以转换性,采取以时间系列代替捕捞努力量的变动,并建立了渔获量对时间序列和环境变量的回归模型,以此来反映北部湾渔业资源的变动情况。分析结果表明,渔获量波动与时间序列显著相关,还与广东沿岸平均降雨量、北部湾沿岸平均降雨量、涠洲岛盐度以及香港季候风等环境因素显著相关。包含时间序列和环境变量的渔获量模型的回归系数为0·93,其置信水平达到99%以上。研究的结果说明,除捕捞因素外,环境因素的变动对北部湾渔业资源的波动有显著的影响。

Influence of natural environment variation on fishery resources in Beibu Gulf

According to the statistical data of catch, fishing effort, as well as rainfall, wind speed and salinity about Guangxi during 1949~1985, the effect of the natural environment variation on annualchange of Guangxi catch has been analyzed.It is difficulty to be transformedfor the fishing effort, so the time series has been adopted, then the regression model of catch to fishing effortand the environment variables has been establishedto reflect the variation of fishery resources in Beibu Gulf. The analysisresultindicatesthe fluctuationof catch has not only remarkable related with fishing effort, but also with average rainfall of Guangdong coast, average rainfall of Beibu Gulfcoast, Weizhou Island salinity as well as Hong Kong monsoon.The regressioncoefficient inthe modeloftime series and environment variable is 0.93,and the confidence level is above 99%.The results show that the effect of variation of environmental factor on the fluctuationof fishery resources in Beibu Gulf besides the fishing element is remarkable.