Constraints and possibilities for developing aquaculture

World aquaculture production in 1990 reached some 15 million tonnes, and predictions indicate that future production will reach 19.6 million tonnes by 2000, 37.5 million tonnes by 2010, and 62.4 million tonnes by 2025. Meanwhile, world fisheries production from capture will remain stable at about 100 million tonnes. Thus, all future increase in seafood supplies will have to come from aquaculture.Possibilities for development of aquaculture exist in a number of areas around the world. Technology and natural conditions determine the choice of sites and species to be produced, but current research indicates that a number of new species will be added to the present aquaculture production in the coming years. However, well-known species such as carp, tilapia, trout, salmon, turbot, halibut, cod, and sturgeon will be the most important in the immediate future. Among the crustaceans, shrimp will continue to be an important item, as will various kinds of gastropods and bivalves.Regions with a particular suitability for development of aquaculture include Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Freshwater aquaculture may also be developed on a larger scale in the former Eastern European countries, including the former Soviet Union, but here (and in Africa), political and economic constraints will slow down development for the next decade. A major constraint for development of aquaculture in Africa is the lack of infrastructure, as well as political problems, slow or deficient bureaucracies, and to some extent pollution. In Eastern Europe, development will be hindered by the lack of capital, and uncertainty about the political and economic development. Eastern Europe also has a major environmental problem, which may limit growth within this field. In Asia, space and availability of suitable sites are becoming a problem, as are pollution, diseases, and in some cases overproduction.A general constraint to global development of aquaculture may be price fluctuations, which affect the investment willingness of interested investors. This question must be seen in connection with the economics of operation. As new species are being launched, there is usually a short period of high profits, followed by a period of price reductions, and the collapse of several operators. After such turbulence, serious operators with proper management survive, and go on to operate a reasonably profitable business. The mechanism seems to be true for all new business areas, and does create a problem for sustained investor interest in aquaculture development.