基于贝叶斯的鲐鱼(Scomber japonicus)生物经济模型及管理策略

根据2000-2011年中国、日本以及韩国三国的鲐鱼大型灯光围网渔业生产统计数据以及相关经济数据，运用贝叶斯方法构建东、黄海鲐鱼贝叶斯生物经济模型，分别以剩余产量模型参数r、K、q的均匀分布、正态分布和对数正态分布3种方案，来模拟不同管理策略下鲐鱼资源量及渔业短期、中期和长期利润变动规律，并对其管理策略进行风险分析。结果显示，参数r、K、q为正态分布和对数正态分布方案下估算出的管理参考点期望值(正态方案下的BMSY除外)均小于均匀分布方案估算出来的期望值。研究认为，如果单从生物学角度来看，若将管理策略设定为收获率0.4以上，则2031年以后资源量可能存在着资源崩溃的风险。较为保守的管理策略应将收获率设定在0.3左右，此时概率(B2031>BMSY)大于0.85，最大可持续产量MSY约为35万t。同样地，如果仅从经济学角度考虑，将收获率控制在0.1时，概率(B2031>BMEY)都为1，且概率(B2031

Bayesian Bio-economic Model and Management Strategy of Chub Mackerel (Scomber japonicus) in the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea

According to the fishery data of light purse seine fisheries of China, Japan and South Korea and the associated economic data during 2000 to 2011, the Bayesian method was used to construct the bio-economic models of Chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) in the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea under three assumptions (uniform distribution, normal distribution and log-normal distribution). The resource status and economic benefits under three different management strategies (short-term, medium-term and long-term) were compared and the suitable management strategies were evaluated. The results showed that the most estimated expectation (except for BMSY under the normal distribution scenario) of management reference points under the normal distribution and log-normal distribution was less than that under the uniform distribution. It suggested that from the biological perspective, if the harvest rate is settled to more than 0.4, the biomass after 2031 may collapse, and the more conservative management strategy should be settled the harvest rate at 0.3. The probability of B2031>BMSY is greater than 0.85, and MSY is about 350 thousand tons. Likewise, if only from the economics perspective, the harvest rate is controlled at 0.1, the probability of B2031>BMEY is 1, and the probability of B2031