滆湖渔业资源系统的仿真研究

介绍了应用灰色理论,对滆湖渔业经济系统和生态系统进行灰色动态和灰色关联分析的思路和方法,还介绍了应用人工智能的神经网络技术对滆湖生态系统中能流、物流的发展变化态势进行网络模拟的设计思路和实现方法。灰色动态分析的结果表明：滆湖渔业经济要持续稳定地发展,其渔业资源繁殖保护及劳力等投资不能低于渔业产值的15％。灰色关联分析结果表明：影响该湖渔业经济的主要环境因子为苦草生物量、轮叶黑藻生物量和水生植物总生物量。人工智能模拟结果表明：要充分利用水草资源,提高滆潮草食性鱼类的经济和生态效益,就要增加团头鲂的放流量,优化放流鱼类的品种结构。最后讨论了应用神经网络模拟与灰色理论相结合的技术进行社会、经济和生态等复杂系统的动态仿真与智能控制的可能性。

Studies on dynamic simulation for fishery resources system in Gehu lake

Ths study analyzed the fishery economic system and ecosystem in Gehu Lake,Jiangsu Province, China by using grey dynamic modelling and grey correlative analysis techniques.The results of grey dynamic modelling showed that the investment on restocking and resources protection should be more than 15% of the fishery production value to keep sustainable development of the Gehu Lake fisheries. The results of grey correlative analsis showed that biomass of Vallisneria spiralis Linn, biomass of Hydrilla verticillata royie and total biomass of macrophyte are the three key factors which affect the fish production. This study also applied neural network technique to simulate the dynamics of energy, material in the Gehu Lake ecosystem. The results showed that restocking of bream (Megalobrama amblycephala Yih) will greatly effect the fish production in Gehu Lake. This paper also discussed the feasibility of dynamic simulation and intelligent control of complicate and huge dynamic system such as social, economic system and ecosystem by the methods based on grey theory and neural network techniques.