东海磷营养盐变动模型的建立与应用

基于磷营养盐的变动由线性趋势和周期性波动构成的假设，构建了东海磷营养盐变动模型；提出了对非等间隔时间序列实测数据求解周期等模型参数的逐步选择法。运用模型对东海磷营养盐的历史调查资料进行验证及预测检验均取得了良好效果。分析还表明，周期性成分引起的波动对东海磷酸盐变动的影响要比相应的趋势项成分大得多；模型的构成周期中并没有特别卓越的成分在其中起支配作用，决定东海磷酸盐变动的是多个时间尺度上的周期性现象的共同作用。

Establishment and application of phosphorus variation model in the East China Sea

Based on the hypothesis that phosphorus nutrient variation consists of linear trend and periodical fluctuation , a model of phosphorus nutrient variation (PVM)is developed .The stepwise choice method is adopted to solve the model parameters ;such as period parameters based on observed data of unequal time interval series .The satisfactory results have been obtained by using the PVM model in fitting the observed data of phosphorous nutrient and verifying the phosphorus nutrient variation as a forecast measure .It is shown that the fluctuation due to the periodical components has much more effect on the variation of phosphorus in the sea than the corresponding trend component .It is also showed that no periodical component has the dominant effect in phosphorus variation and it is the combined effect of periodical phenomenon in several time-scales to determine the variation of phosphorus nutrient .