舟山渔场渔业资源动态解析

研究了1952－2001年舟山渔场渔获量和单位捕捞努力渔获量的变动，结果表明舟山渔场渔获量和单位捕捞努力渔获量的变动可分离为确定性趋势和平稳随机序列，进而用确定性趋势模型和ARMA（pq)模型叠合，建立了舟山渔场渔业资源的动态模型。并对舟山渔场渔业资源变动的阶段性和资源的利用现状进行了讨论，提出了资源管理的措施。

Dynamic analysis on fisheries resources in Zhoushan Fishing Ground

Based on the investigation on the fluctuation of the catch and catch per unit effort ( CPUE) in Zhoushan Fishing Ground during the period from 1952 to 2001, it is showed that the catch and CPUE can be illustrated by determinacy tendency and stationary random sequence. Combining the determinacy tendency models w ith ARMA( p q) models, the complex models were built to describe the dynamics of f isheries resources. The stages of the f isheries resources f luctuation were divided. The utilization extent of f isheries resources was discussed and the f isheries managing measures were propounded.