影响中国农产品总产量的主要因素分析——基于农户经营方式的视角

从农户经营方式的角度看，弱质劳动力务农、劳动力兼业经营和农业规模经营是影响中国农产品总产量的三个主要因素。采用国内外的相关数据分析这三个因素对农产品总产量的影响，结果表明，不同质劳动力利用和农业劳动力兼业不一定会影响农产品总产量，农户的粮食规模种植模式也不是必然提高国家的粮食总产量。由此得出，中国农产品总产量水平主要是由当前技术水平所决定的；农业规模经营方式中，如果农户收入最大化通过总的规模收益实现，不利于国家主要农产品安全目标的实现；家庭农场的建立应趋利避免害，避免复种制度改变对农产品总产量的影响。

Discussed on Main Affecting Factors of China＇S Agricultural Production： Based on Perspective of Farmers Operation

Based on the perspective of farmers operation, China＇s agricultural output is influenced by three factors： the elderly and women farming, the part-time farmers, and the farm size. Using the relevant data at home and abroad to analyze these three factors influence on agricultural production, the conclusion was as follows： it was not bound to affect agricultural production to elderly and women farming, part-time farmers, and agricultural scale operation, which would give some enlightenment such as： China＇s total agricultural production level was primarily determined by the current technical level. If farmers＂ income maximization was implemented through the total return to scale, this would hinder to achieve the safety goal of main agricultural products in China. The establishment of family farm should hasten benefits to avoid multiple cropping system change impacts on agricultural production.