我国粮食安全预警系统研究

党的十七届三中全会指出：“确保国家粮食安全。粮食安全任何时候都不能放松，必须长抓不懈。加快构建供给稳定、储备充足、调控有力、运转高效的粮食安全保障体系。”粮食安全问题一直是世界性重大问题，备受世界各国政府及专家学者的关注与研究。因此，我国是否要建立全国粮食安全早期预警系统和粮食危机应急机制，也成为关系到我国未来的经济社会发展的重大问题。本文根据我国粮食发展总体目标，分析了我国历年粮食发展的规律，用符合实际的科学预测模型，预测出未来粮食安全综合警限指标，并提出了建立我国粮食安全预警系统的对策。

China Grain Safety Early-Warning System

The third Plenary Session of the Seventeenth Central Committee of the Communist Party of CHina said, Ensuring food security in China. At any time food safety cannot be relaxed, and it must be grasped for ever. Accelerated the establishment of a stable supply, reserving enough, powerful regulation, and running efficient food security system .＂ Food secrurty is a worldwide major problem, being the world＇s governments, experts, and scholars＂ hot topic. Therefore, China should establish the national food security early-warning, the food crisis system and emergency response mechanism in our country in the future, which are also relative to economic and social development of the major issues. According to China grain development overall goals and based on the analysis of the law of grain development in China, the actual scientific prediction model, was made ,and the establish ment of ,China＇s grain security warning-system countermeasures were put forward.