Environmental conditions, satellite imagery, and clupeoid recruitment in the northern Benguela upwelling system

The relationship between oceanographic conditions and clupeoid (pilchard, Sardinops sagax, and anchovy, Engraulis capensis ) recruitment in the northern Benguela upwelling system was investigated from 1981 to 1987 using a time-series of mean weekly SST images. Two approaches were taken. The first involved correlating recruitment success with the number of weekly coastal `SST events' above various cut-off temperatures during the main reproductive season. The second involved constructing a multiple regression model of recruitment success with two independent environmental variables: namely, the number of coastal `SST events' greater than 19°C, and an onshore retention index for the early life-history stages. The retention index was derived from a spatial time-series analysis of the SST images using principal components analysis. In general, pilchard recruitment showed a positive relationship with the `number of SST events' whilst anchovy recruitment had a negative relationship; 1987 was an outlier year, during which there were exceptionally high levels of both pilchard and anchovy recruitment. The multiple regression R ² values were high and significant for both species (pilchard R ² = 0.88, anchovy R ² = 0.96). The regression model also accounted for the 1987 outlier according to levels of onshore retention which, despite low inshore SSTs, were particularly high during the 1986/87 reproductive season. Although these results need to be validated with data from a longer time period, they show how satellite data might be used for predicting clupeoid recruitment success in the northern Benguela.