Declines in chinook salmon catches in the Strait of Georgia in relation to shifts in the marine environment

Chinook, Oncurhynchus tshawytscha, catches in the Strait of Georgia increased in the 1970s and reached maximum levels from 1976 to 1978. Catches then declined until they stabilized through regulation at levels approximately one-quarter of the 1976 to 1978 levels. The timing of the decline in catch was synchronous with an increase in the mean temperature of the Strait of Georgia, a decline in annual Fraser River flows, and an abrupt decrease in the marine survival of hatchery-reared chinook released into the Strait of Georgia. Surprisingly, the number of young chinook salmon (smolts) more than doubled over the period of declining catches compared with the number produced during the period of high catches. The increase in smolt abundance was a consequence of the production from hatcheries that was approximately equal to wild production. We conclude that there was a change in the carrying capacity for chinook salmon in the Strait of Georgia in the late 1970s that contributed to the declines in abundance and that rebuilding stocks to the high abundance of the late 1970s is unlikely until the carrying capacity for chinook salmon changes either naturally or through manipulation. Although we did not separate density-dependent and density-independent effects on marine survival, the current total number of chinook smolts produced appears larger than required for the current marine carrying capacity.