基于BRT_DC_Pd模型的土地利用模拟研究

通过对Dyna-CLUE模型进行改进,嵌入BRT模型和Patch-dynamics模型,形成BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patchdynamics模型。以生态脆弱区典型县域磴口县为研究区,基于2006年磴口县土地利用情况,应用BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics模型,对磴口县2016年的土地利用状况进行模拟预测,并与目前应用较多的Logistic_CA_Markov模型进行对比验证。结果表明,Logistic_CA_Markov模型模拟结果的Kappa系数为0.721 4,BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patchdynamics模型模拟结果的Kappa系数为0.782 6,2个组合模型的模拟结果精度较高,均与真实解译结果具有高度一致性,但BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics模型模拟精度更高,结果更优。因此,将BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patchdynamics模型应用于当地土地利用变化模拟预测,具有一定可行性,可为当地生态治理以及相关政策的实施提供一定的参考。

Simulation of Landuse Based on BRT_DC_Pd Model

The BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics model was formed by improving Dyna-CLUE model, by embedding BRT model and Patch-dynamics model. Based on the landuse situation in Dengkou County in 2006, a case study was conducted in Dengkou County, a typical county in the ecologically fragile region. The BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics model was used to simulate the landuse situation in 2016 in Dengkou County and compared with the Logistic_CA_Markov model which was currently used more. The results showed that the Kappa coefficient of the Logistic_CA_Markov model was 0.7214, and the Kappa coefficient of the BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics model was 0.7826. The simulation results of the two combinatorial models were highly accurate and both were highly consistent with the real interpretation results. BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics model had high simulation accuracy and good result. Therefore, it is feasible to apply the BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics model to the simulation and forecast of local landuse change in order to provide some reference for the implementation of local ecological control and related policies.