内蒙古河套灌区节水工程改造效果分析与评估

以内蒙古河套灌区1982—2012年长系列农业净引水量和年降水量资料为基础,运用均值分析、方差分析、相关分析、时间序列分析和生存分析等数理统计学方法,并结合内蒙古河套灌区农业种植发展进程,分析了河套灌区多年农业净引水量变化趋势与影响因素,得出年降水量(超过211.76 mm时,即丰水年)和节水工程改造分别独立地与农业净引水量呈明显负相关关系的结论。运用时间序列法预测了2013、2014和2015年河套灌区的农业净引水量分别为44.5、44.18和43.86亿m3;同时运用生存分析法预测了在灌区现有节水改造规模条件下,河套灌区农业净引水量区间为35~55亿m3,平均为45亿m3。

Analysis and Assessment of Water-saving Project of Hetao Irrigation District in Inner Mongolia

The net water diversion of agriculture in Hetao Irrigation District was studied. Based on the data during 1982 to 2012 in Hetao Irrigation District, the characteristics of the net water diversion variability in 31 years were analyzed by using several statistic methods, such as ANOM, ANOVA, correlation analysis, time series analysis and survival analysis. In addition, the impact of annual precipitations and water-saving engineering projects was analyzed by the progress of Hetao Irrigation District developmental history. The forecasted net water diversion in Hetao Irrigation District would be about 44.5×10.8m3 in 2013, 44.18×108m3 in 2014 and 43.86×108m3 in 2015 by the time series analysis method. In current water-saving engineering project, the forecasted net water diversion would be from 35×108m3 to 55×108m3 by the survival analysis method. The net water diversion was influenced sharply by annual precipitation (more than 211.76mm, namely wet years) and water-saving engineering project. These two factors had a negative correlation with the net water diversion. Finally, the relationship between net water diversion and total investment of water-saving engineering project was discussed. The results provided an important foundation for the management of sustainable development in Hetao Irrigation District.