| 浙江高温热害气象下水稻孕穗阶段热害概率的拟合优度检验方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 詹平华,江涛,李强,郑磊,杨栩.浙江高温热害气象下水稻孕穗阶段热害概率的拟合优度检验方法[J].农业工程,2020,10(1):38-41. |
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| 作者姓名： | 詹平华 江涛 李强 郑磊 杨栩 |
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| 作者单位： | 桐庐县气象局,浙江桐庐311500;杭州市气象局,浙江杭州310051 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划（2013CB127403） |
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| 摘 要： | 为避免或降低高温热害对水稻孕穗阶段的影响，建立了一种热害概率预测模型，并采用卡方检验法判断其拟合度。结果表明，预测温度值与实际温度值的拟合度较高，该模型能够有效预测稻田的热害发生概率以及划分高温热害风险等级。
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| 关 键 词： | 高温热害气象 水稻孕穗阶段 热害概率 拟合优度检验 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019/8/8 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019/11/18 0:00:00 |
Goodness-of-Fit Test Method for Heat Damage Probability of Rice at Booting Stage in High Temperature and Hot Weather in Zhejiang |
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| ZHAN Pinghu,JIANG Tao,LI Qiang,ZHENG Lei and YANG Xu.Goodness-of-Fit Test Method for Heat Damage Probability of Rice at Booting Stage in High Temperature and Hot Weather in Zhejiang[J].Agricultural Engineering,2020,10(1):38-41. |
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| Authors: | ZHAN Pinghu JIANG Tao LI Qiang ZHENG Lei and YANG Xu |
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| Abstract: | In order to avoid or reduce impact of high temperature heat damage on booting stage of rice，a heat damage probability prediction model was established，and the chi-square test method was used to determine its fitness.Results showed that degree of fit between predicted temperature value and actual temperature value was high.The model can effectively predict probability of occurrence of heat damage in rice fields and classify risk level of high temperature heat damage. |
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