RiverWare软件在水库兴利调度研究中的应用

针对水库预报调度中因预报径流不确定性导致的发电风险问题,提出了一种考虑来水预报信息的调度规则.以三峡水库为研究对象,运用RiverWare软件构建了基于该调度规则的RiverWare模型,为验证所提规则的有效性,将实际(完美预报)来水作为输入,对比规则调度结果与优化调度结果;进一步,为探究预报不确定性所带来的发电效益风险,基于预报偏差系数及蒙特·卡罗方法,拟定多组预报偏差系数开展规则调度,并和完美预报下规则调度结果对比分析.结论表明:与优化相比,规则调度的发电量损失较小且可以有效地满足水库平稳下泄的要求;丰、平、枯3种典型来水情景下预报偏差系数分别在0.05,0.20,0.05内时,与完美预报下发电量基本一致,相对偏差均可控制在0.2%.文中提出的调度规则可在一定程度上减小因预报径流不确定性导致的发电差异,研究成果可为水库实际生产运行中的预报调度提供参考.

Application of RiverWare software in research reservior benefit operation

Aiming at the power generation risk problem caused by the uncertainty of predicted runoff in reservoir forecast operation,a dispatch rule considering the inflow forecast information was proposed.Taking the Three Gorges Reservoir as the research object,a RiverWare model based on the operation rule was constructed by using RiverWare software.In order to verify the effectiveness of the proposed rules,the actual(perfect forecast)inflow was taken as the input,and the regular operation results were compared with the optimized operation results.In addition,to explore the power generation benefit risk caused by the forecast uncertainty,based on the forecast deviation coefficient and the Monte Carlo method,multiple groups of forecast deviation coefficients were drawn to carry out regular rule dispatching,and the results of the rule dispatch under the perfect forecast were compared and analyzed.The result show that compared with the optimization,the generation loss of regular operation was small,and it can effectively meet the requirements of stable discharge of the reservoir.When the forecast deviation coefficients under the three typical inflow scenarios are within 0.05,0.20,and 0.05 respectively,it was basically consistent with the power generation under the perfect forecast,and the relative deviation can be controlled within 0.2%.The regulation rules proposed in this paper can reduce the difference in power generation caused by the uncertainty of forecast runoff to a certain extent.The research results can provide references for forecast dispatch rule in the actual production and operation of the reservoirs.