基于Budyko假设的岷江流域实际蒸散模拟研究

基于Budyko假设,采用傅抱璞模型对1980—2010年岷江流域实际蒸散进行模拟,将Mann-Kendall检验法、Pettitt突变检测法、反距离权重插值法用于分析实际蒸散的时空变化特征,以灵敏度及Pearson相关系数为指标分析了岷江流域实际蒸散的主要影响因子。结果表明,基于Budyko假设的傅抱璞模型对岷江流域实际蒸散的模拟效果较好。岷江流域多年平均实际蒸散在空间上呈自东南向西北逐渐减少的分布特征;在研究时段内,流域的多年平均实际蒸散呈显著下降趋势(通过99%置信度检验),并于1991年发生显著性突变(通过90%置信度检验)。岷江流域实际蒸散的变化是多种因素共同影响的结果,其中降雨是主要的气候影响因素。

Simulation and Analysis of Actual Evapotranspiration in Minjiang River Basin Based on Budyko Hypothesis

On the basis of Budyko hypothesis,Fu Baopu model was used to calculate the actual evapotranspira tion in Minjiang River Basin during the period of 1980-2010.The Mann-Kendall statistical test,Pettitt test,and IDW interpolation method were selected to detect the spatial and temporal variations of actual evapotranspiration.The results showed that model had an acceptable performance in simulating the actual evapotranspiration (ET) in the study area.The annual actual ET had a significant decreasing trend at the 99％ confidence level,with a decreasing trend from the southeast to the northwest.The sensitivity analysis revealed that the most important climate factor influencing the actual ET in Minjiang River Basin was precipitation.