2001-2017年天山中段积雪时空变异研究

【目的】为干旱区提供冰雪资源的合理利用及灾害防治的科学理论不服务信息。【斱法】采取趋势分析法、相关性分析法,开展了2001-2017年积雪年内年际变化特征以及分布变化原因斱面的研究。【结果】①天山中段SCP(积雪覆盖率)年际变化呈"单峰"型曲线,6月到最小值,12月到次年1月达到最大值,从2月开始逐渐下降到最小值;从7月初开始SCP开始逐渐上升到最大值。②天山中段年际SCP呈减少趋势、春季的SCP变化呈略微减少趋势、夏季不秋季SCP变化均呈增加趋势、冬季SCP变化趋势跟全年年际SCP变化趋势基本相似,且均呈减少趋势,最高值为98.6%,最小值出现在2009年为83.2%。③天山中段54.08%区域的SCD(积雪日数)呈减少趋势,其中4.36%区域呈显著减少趋势;45.92%区域的SCD呈增加趋势,其中3.03%区域呈显著增加趋势。④天山中段积雪不LST(地表温度)年际相关性呈负相关性比较明显,负相关占总面积的55.89%,主要分布在高海拔的天山山脉,博格达尔;34.98%区域呈极显著负相关,主要分布在伊犁河谷、天山南北坡地区不阿克苏、库尔勒、博斯腾湖流域周边。【结论】天山中段积雪时空变化丌仅是LST变化的影响,还受人类活劢和海拔高度差异等因素的共同作用。

Spatiotemporal Variation of Snow Cover in the Middle Section of Tianshan Mountains in 2001-2017

【Objective】We aimed to provide scientific theory and service information for the rational use of ice and snow resources and disaster prevention for arid areas.【Method】The trend analysis method and correlation analysis method were used to carry out research on the characteristics of interannual variation and the causes of distribution changes of snow cover during the snow year.【Result】①The annual variation of SCP(snow cover coverage) in the middle part of Tianshan Mountains showed a "single-peak" curve, which reached the minimum value in June, the maximum value in December and gradually decreased to the minimum value from February. Since the beginning of July, the SCP gradually increased to the maximum value. ②The interannual SCP in the middle part of Tianshan Mountains showed a decreasing trend, and the change of SCP in spring showed a slightly decreasing trend. The change of SCP in summer and autumn showed an increasing trend, and the change of SCP in winter was basically similar to the change of annual SCP in the whole year, with the highest value being 98.6% and the lowest value being 83.2% in 2009. ③The SCD(days with snow cover) in 54.08% of the area of the middle of Tianshan Mountains showed a decreasing trend, among which 4.36% showed a significant decreasing trend. The SCD in 45.92% area showed an increase trend, among which 3.03% area showed a significant increase trend. ④The interannual correlation between snow cover and LST(surface temperature) in the middle part of Tianshan Mountains is relatively negative. The negative correlation accounts for 55.89% of the total area, and is mainly distributed in Bogdale, the high altitude Tianshan Mountains. 34.98% of the region showed a very significant negative correlation, mainly distributed in Yili valley, south Tianshan Mountains, north slope area and Aksu, Korla, Bosten lake basin surrounding.【Conclusion】In summary, the temporal and spatial variation of snow cover in the middle Tianshan Mountains is not only the influence of LST changes, but also affected by human activities and altitude differences.