| 豫北地区参考作物需水量的随机模拟 |
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| 引用本文： | 王声锋,张展羽,段爱旺.豫北地区参考作物需水量的随机模拟[J].灌溉排水学报,2008,27(5):59-62. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王声锋 张展羽 段爱旺 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]河海大学水利水电工程学院,南京210098 [2]中国农业科学院农田灌溉研究所,河南新乡453003 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划) |
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| 摘 要： | 河南省新乡市1971~2000年共30年的逐旬气象资料,用Penman-Monteith方法计算了逐旬的ET0,并采用时间序列方法,对该地区的ET0进行了分析和模拟,结果表明豫北地区的逐旬ET0变化趋势并不显著,周期性可用Fourier级数加以描述,对随机的变化可建立AR(1)模型。所建立的随机模型能很好的模拟出历年逐旬ET0的变化动向,同时随机模型的建立也为以后该地区实时灌溉预报和农田用水提供依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 参考作物需水量 随机模拟 时间序列分析 |
Stochastic Characters of Reference Evapotranspiration of North Henan Province |
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| WANG Sheng-feng,ZHANG Zhan-yu,DUAN Ai-wang.Stochastic Characters of Reference Evapotranspiration of North Henan Province[J].Journal of Irrigation and Drainage,2008,27(5):59-62. |
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| Authors: | WANG Sheng-feng ZHANG Zhan-yu DUAN Ai-wang |
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| Institution: | WANG Sheng-feng1,2,ZHANG Zhan-yu1,DUAN Ai-wang2(1.Water Conservancy , Hydropower Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China,2.Forml, Irrigation Research Institue,CAAS,Xinxiang 453003,China) |
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| Abstract: | According to the climate datas from 1971～2000 at Xinxiang weather station in North Henan province,the series of reference evapotranspiration of every ten days was calculated by Penman-Monteith equations,and the stochastic characteristics of the series was analyzed by time series analysis method.the results suggest that there was no change tendency of the 10 days series,but the mean values and standard deviation can be expressed by the Fourier series,and the stochastic characters of the series can be expressed AR(1) models.Because the stochastic simulation models' building,the 10 days ET0 would be expressed well.At the same time,it can further used in the stochastic forecasting of soil moisture and agricultural irrigation water-consumption. |
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| Keywords: | reference evapotranspiration stochastic characters time series analysis |
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