苏北灌区农户节水决策的定量分析

灌溉农业在我国有着悠久的历史，我国农业的可持续发展很大程度上依赖于水资源的利用状况。阐述了灌区农户节水行为的影响因素，根据对农户节水行为、农户收支状况等实地调查资料，通过构建农户节水行为决策模型,对农业节水决策等相关方面的问题进行了定量的分析与讨论。研究表明：在农户节水决策过程中，农户受到灌区改革、国家农业政策和自身条件等各种因素的影响，其行为会反映到水资源利用、土地利用变化上，完全可以通过有关数量模型对农户的农业节水行为进行预测。最后，提出了有关政策建议。

The Quantitative Analysis of Farmers' Water-saving Decision in the Irrigation Districts of the Northern Jiangsu Province ——A Case Study of Suyu County

Irrigating agriculture has long history in China,and sustainable development of agriculture depends on water resources use condition to much extent.This paper illustrated the influencing factors for farmers water-saving activities;and it analyzed and discussed quantitatively farmers water-saving decision according to the first hand investigation data of the farmers water-saving behavior,income and expenses through constructing farmer water-saving behavior model and quantitatively analyzing the agricultural water-saving decision.The study results demonstrated that in the farmers' water-saving decision the farmers behaviors are influenced by policies of the district reform and national agriculture,and family condition.Because their activities are reflected by changes in water use and land use,the farmers' behavior can be predicted by the quantitative model.In the end,several policy suggestions were put forward.