径流式水电站年来水量的变化特点及其灰色预测

通过对径流式水电站年来水量的变化特点及其预测问题的分析，建立了径流式水电站来水量预测的灰色数学模型，并就预测中样本序列的拓扑选择、预测的目标等问题提出了相应的策略。最后结合一个实例说明了本 方法的应用。结果表明，本文的方法及分析思路，对径流式水电站年来水量的预测具有较好的应用效果和参考价值。

Variation Characteristics of Yearly Incoming_Flow at Run_of_River Hydropower Stations and Their Gray Prediction

By means of analyzing variation characteristics of yearly incoming_flow at run_of_river hydropower stations and their prediction problems, a gray mathematical model for predicting yearly incoming_flow at run_of_river hydropower stations is established. Meanwhile, for the problems of topological selection of sample sequence, aim of prediction, etc. in the prediction, some corresponding strategies are proposed. Finally, combining an actual example the application of this method is expounded. The results show that the method with its analytical train of thought has better values of application and reference for predicting yearly incoming_flow at run_of_river hydropower stations.