分布式洪水预报模型在密云水库流域的应用

随着南水北调工程的逐步投入运行，密云水库将面临高水位运行。对密云水库流域洪水预报开展研究，基于EasyDHM模型建模，通过EasyDHM产流模型和马斯京根汇流模型演算方法、LH-OAT敏感性分析方法和SCE-UA参数优化方法等，对密云水库流域进行了洪水模拟及参数率定，并选取场次洪水进行验证。分析结果表明，EasyDHM模型在密云水库流域有很好的适用性。

Application of distributed flood forecasting model in Miyun Reservoir Basin

As south-to-north water transfers gradually put into operation, Miyun Reservoir will be faced with a high water level.In research of this paper, we carried out the research of Miyun Reservoir flood forecast.Flood forecast model was establised based on the EasyDHM model and by using the runoff generation model of EasyDHM, the Muskingum method,the parameter sensitivity analysis method LH-OAT and the parameter optimization method SCE-UA,parameters were calibrated and flood events are simulated. the model was also validated through the session flood.The results show that the modelhas good applicability in the Miyun Reservoir basin.