指标权重算法对Fisher最优分割在水库汛期分期中的影响研究

汛期分期是水库洪水资源利用的重要内容之一,Fisher最优分割被广泛用于汛期分期研究,但指标权重对Fisher最优分割结果的影响程度尚不明确。以信江流域七一水库为例,比较了变异系数、熵权、主成分分析3种方法计算指标权重结果的差异及其对Fisher最优分割结果的影响。结果表明:3种指标权重计算方法均适用于在Fisher最优分割法确定汛期分期,变异系数法和熵权法更适用于指标权重的分析和计算;3种方法确定的指标权重结果存在一定差异,但对Fisher最优分割汛期分期结果的影响较小。通过对Fisher最优分割中指标权重的合理性计算和分析,能较好区别指标的差异性,从而为水库优化运行管理提供借鉴。

The Influence of the Weight of Index Algorithm on the Fisher's Optimal Segmentation in the Reservoir's Flood Season

Flood season division is one of the important aspects of flood resource utilization for reservoirs.Fisher's optimal dissection method is widely used in flood season division,while the influence of index weight on Fisher's optimal segmentation results is not clear.This paper compares the differences between the results of variation coefficient method,entropy weight method and principal component analysis method,and their effects on Fisher's optimal segmentation results based on the case study of Qiyi Reservoir in the Xinjiang River Basin.The results show that the three calculation methods of index weight are all applicable to the division of flood season by Fisher optimal dissection method,results of variation coefficient method and entropy weight method are more suitable for the analysis and calculation of index weight;there are some differences in the results of index weight determined by the three methods,but it has little influence on Fisher's optimal segmentation results in flood seasons.By calculating and analyzing the rationality of index weight in Fisher optimal segmentation,which can distinguish the difference of the index and provide reference for the optimal operation management of the reservoir.