大型灌区农田有效灌溉面积发展趋势分析及预测

大型灌区农田有效灌溉面积是保障我国粮食安全的重要基础条件。对1978～2011年大型灌区农田有效灌溉面积发展趋势进行了分析。采用融合Markov链的GM(1,1)模型对大型灌区2013～2020年农田有效灌溉面积进行了预测。结果表明，未来大型灌区农田有效灌溉面积将持续增长，到2020年将达到1879.5~1892.2万hm2，融合Markov链的GM(1,1)模型对大型灌区农田有效灌溉面积的预测具有较好的精度及适用性。

Analysis and forecasting of development trend of the farmland effective irrigated area of the large-sized irrigation district

The farmland effective irrigated area of large-sized irrigation district was an important basic condition of food security. The development trend of farmland effective irrigated area of large-sized irrigation district from 1978 to 2011 was analyzed in this paper. The GM (1,1) model based on the Markov chain was applied to forecast farmland effective irrigated area of large-sized irrigation district. The results showed that the farmland effective irrigated area of large-sized irrigation district would continue to grow in the future, and reached to 18.8×106 ~ 18.9×106 hm2 until 2020. The forecast of model for farmland effective irrigated area of large-sized irrigation district had good precision and applicability.