| 水产品收购价格预测的时序组合模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 张小栓,张健,傅泽田,穆维松.水产品收购价格预测的时序组合模型研究[J].农机化研究,2004(2):86-88. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张小栓 张健 傅泽田 穆维松 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国农业大学,现代精细农业系统集成教育部重点实验室,北京,100083
2. 北京机械工业学院,北京,100085 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(70133001)，天津市市校合作项目(0108020314) |
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| 摘 要： | 我国水产品市场已经出现了区域性、结构性的供大于求及价格持续下降的现象。为此，对水产品价格进行预测是必要的。以1978～1999年数据为样本，利用时序组合模型对2000年的水产品收购价格进行了预测研究。
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| 关 键 词： | 水产品 收购价格 预测 序列组合模型 时间 谐波分析法 市场 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-188X(2004)02-0086-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年4月10日 |
A Time Series Decomposed Model for Forecasting Farmer Price of Aquatic Products |
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| ZHANG Xiao-shuan,ZHANG Jian,FU Ze-tian,MU Wei-song.A Time Series Decomposed Model for Forecasting Farmer Price of Aquatic Products[J].Journal of Agricultural Mechanization Research,2004(2):86-88. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Xiao-shuan ZHANG Jian FU Ze-tian MU Wei-song |
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| Institution: | ZHANG Xiao-shuan1,ZHANG Jian2,FU Ze-tian1,MU Wei-song1 |
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| Abstract: | At present supply of aquatic products had exceeded demand and there appeared territorial and structural disequilibrium in the domestic aquaculture market. As a result the price of aquatic products is continuously down. So that price prediction had became the main problem in fishery economic. In this paper we had predicted farmer price of aquatic products in 2000 via time series decomposed model sampled between 1978 and 1999. |
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| Keywords: | agricultural economics time series decomposed model theoretical research farmer price of aquatic products the method of harmonic wave |
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