农业机械化发展水平对种植业全要素生产率的门槛效应

基于Malmquist指数法对2000-2017年全国31个省(市、自治区)种植业全要素生产率进行了测算,进一步测算了农业机械化发展水平综合指数,并设计了面板门槛模型解释其间的关系。研究结果表明:农业机械化发展水平综合指数与种植业生产率之间存在以地形为门槛变量的单一门槛效应,跨过门槛值后这两者间有显著的负向影响。因此,提升种植业全要素生产率不能只靠提高农业机械化水平,地形因素也很重要,选用适应地形的农业机械才能真正提高种植业全要素生产率。

Threshold Effect of Agricultural Mechanization Development Level on TFP of Planting Industry

This paper used the Malmquist index method to calculate the total factor productivity of planting industry of 31 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)from 2000 to 2017.The paper calculated the comprehensive index of agricultural mechanization development level and used a panel threshold model to explain the relationship between these two indexes.The results showed that there was a single threshold effect between the comprehensive index of agricultural mechanization development level and the total factor productivity of planting industry with landform as the threshold variable.The comprehensive index of agricultural mechanization development level would have a significant negative influence on the total factor productivity if the value excessed the threshold value.The improvement of total factor productivity of planting industry cannot only depend on the improvement of agricultural mechanization but also depend on the topographic factors.Only by choosing appropriate agricultural machinery according to the corresponding topographic conditions can the total factor productivity of planting industry be truly improved.